关键词: 地表太阳下行辐射, ECMWF再分析资料, CMA站点, 地理探测器, 影响因子

Abstract:

Comparison of surface radiation data of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis data and data from station observation (China Meteorological Administration) is conducted at different time scales to check whether reanalysis data can reflect the characteristics of surface solar radiation over China. Based on the cluster analysis method, China is divided into 8 regions in order to study the regional differences of the surface radiation products of the ECMWF reanalysis data in China. Taking into account the influence of atmospheric factors on the earth's surface radiation and the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the atmospheric distribution, the geographical detector is used to find the causes of errors in different sites of reanalysis data. Overall, ECMWF is higher than the ground observation station data and the monthly deviation is 18.2835W/m². ECMWF shows seasonal difference, greater deviation in spring and winter, less deviation in summer and autumn. Large relative deviation of the data mainly distributed in December, January, February and March while minor relative deviation of the data mainly concentrated in July, June, August and September. The dominant atmospheric factors in different regions are different in winter and summer. In summer, from zone 1 to 5 the dominant factors are aerosols and the power of determinant is larger. The dominant factors of the zone 6 are albedo and aerosol. The dominant factors of the zone 7 are cloud cover and aerosol but the power of determinant is small, merely 0.0228 and 0.0202, respectively. Failing significance test indicates that the four factors had no significant effect on the relative deviation in the zone 8. In winter, the dominant factors of zone 4, 6, 8 and zone 1, 3, 5, 7 are aerosol and cloud coverage, respectively.

Key words: surface solar radiation, ECMWF reanalysis data, CMA stations, Geo-Detector software, influence factors