关键词: 海上丝绸之路, 热带气旋, 危险性, 西北太平洋, 北印度洋, 风场模拟, 关键通道

Abstract:

As a powerful meteorological disaster, tropical cyclones have a great impact on the maritime shipping of the Maritime Silk Road. Base on the best track data of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1990 to 2017, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of the tropicalcycloneshazard. First, the tropical cyclones are classified into 4 grades. Next, the Modified Rankine Vortex (MRV) model is used to simulate the wind field of each tropical cyclone. Then, the frequency of each grade of tropical cyclone that occurred in the research area can be obtained. Finally, a tropical cyclone hazard assessment model is used to assess the tropical cyclone hazard level in the main sea areas of the Maritime Silk Road.The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The sea areas of the Maritime Silk Road are seriously affected by tropical cycloneswith high occurrence frequency of tropical cyclones. The Northwest Pacific Ocean is more severely affected by tropical cyclones than the North Indian Ocean. (2)The sea areas between 15~30° North and 120~145° East are at the highest hazard level. (3) The seasonal change of tropical cyclone hazard is obvious. The tropical cyclone hazard levels of the sea areas of the North Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Oceanare higher in autumn and summer than winter and spring. Moreover,in the summer and autumn, the sea areas in July, August, September and October have the relatively higher hazard levels. (4) Among the main sea areas, Eastern China Seais at the highest hazard level, followed by the South China Sea, the Sea of Japan, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, while the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are not affected by tropical cyclones. Among the main channels, the Luzon Strait is at the highest hazard level, followed by the Taiwan Strait, the Tsushima Strait,the Soya Strait, the Tartar Strait, the Paco Strait, and the Strait of Hormuz, however the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Mande are not affected by tropical cyclone.

Key words: the Maritime Silk Road, tropical cyclones, hazard, the north Indian Ocean, the northwest Pacific Ocean, windfieldsimulation, main channels