关键词: COVID-19, 时空对象, 空间相互作用, 迁移模型, 空间异质性, 传染病模型, 风险分析

Abstract:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still spreading all over the world. According to the early diffusion characteristics of covid-19 in China, From the perspective of geography, an epidemic risk assessment model considering spatial interaction of spatial-temporal objects was constructed. which realizes the correlation and dynamic analysis of the inter city transmission of epidemic risk on the basis of referring to the transfer mode of spatial interaction of spatial-temporal objects, and took into account the spatial-temporal process, spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. In the stage of empirical research, the epidemic risk and its dynamic evolution in Wuhan and its surrounding cities from early January 2020 to early April 2020 were evaluated based on this model. Compared with the real-time epidemic risk index and its spatial distribution calculated based on the urban object's own attributes, the effectiveness of the spatial interaction model based on spatial-temporal objects in epidemic risk assessment was verified. The results show that: on the one hand, The model took into account the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of epidemic transmission, and reflected the transmission process between cities of epidemic risk. It provides a new perspective and method for the study of epidemic risk assessment and related spatial problems. On the other hand, there is a significant positive correlation between the input epidemic risk from source objects and the spatial interaction intensity between objects. Therefore, comprehensive decision-making should be made in combination with the main influencing factors of spatial interaction in epidemic prevention and control.

Key words: COVID-19, spatio-temporal object, spatial interaction, migration model, spatial heterogeneity, epidemic model, risk analysis