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摘要： 中国是一个农业大国，在田块甚至是亚田块尺度上进行快速、准确的作物产量估算，不仅可以对农民田间管理进行指导，对于农田生态系统对全球变化的响应评价、制定科学合理的粮食政策、对外粮食贸易和国家粮食安全都具有重要意义。目前主流的估产模型主要有经验统计模型、光能利用率模型、作物生长模型等，每一类模型在各自研究领域相对完整，但是都形成了固定的局限性，为了研究利用遥感技术在小区域范围内田块尺度的作物估产，选取黑龙江省双山农场为研究区，以大豆为研究对象，基于CASA-WOFOST耦合估产模式，利用覆盖作物生长季的时间序列HJ-1A/B遥感影像数据构建高时间分辨率归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI)，实现逐日连续监测，分别利用CASA模型和CASA-WOFOST耦合模型对作物进行单产模拟，结果表明：耦合得到的新模型能够具有光能利用率模型较高的运行速度，同时还能发挥作物生长模型模型的机理优势，克服CASA模型在小区域田块尺度上应用的局限性。大豆单产模拟线性回归判定系数(R2)由0.668 53上升到0.844 72，均方根误差(RMSE) 由51.41 kg/hm2下降到29.52 kg/hm2，说明耦合后的模型可以综合考虑光能利用与作物生长生态生理全过程，从而提高作物估产的精度、可靠性和稳定性，为区域田块尺度作物估产提供理论支持，更好地服务于精准农业发展。 关键词： CASA?WOFOST模型;  单产估算;  遥感;  高时间分辨率NDVI     Abstract: China is an agricultural country. Yield estimating on field scales rapidly and accurately is not only instructional to farmers’ field management, but also important for the response evaluation of farmland ecosystems to climate change, making scientific and rational food policies, external food trade and so on. The current primary estimation models include empirical statistical model, light use efficiency model, and crop growth model. Each type of model is relatively complete in its individual research filed, but all of them have certain amount of limitations. Remote sensing technology was used to estimate crop yield on a field scale within small regional areas. A farm of Heilongjiang Province was selected as the study area, and the soybean was as the research object. Based on the coupled CASA-WOFOST model and time-series HJ-1A/B remotely sensed data which covering the entire growing season of soybean to generate high temporal resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), we achieved daily continuous monitoring of crop and simulating crop yield by CASA model and CASA-WOFOST model respectively. The results indicated that the coupled model had a faster running speed of the light use efficiency model, it could also give full play to mechanism advantages of crop growth model and overcome the limitations of the CASA model applied to field scales. The R2 of soybean yields increased from 0.668 53 to 0.844 72 and RMSE decreased from 51.41 to 29.52 kg/ha. It is indicated that the coupled mode of light use efficiency model and crop growth model could simultaneously consider the light utilization and the whole physiological and ecological process of crop growth. So that the coupled model could improve the precision, reliability, and stability of crop yield estimation, and provide theoretical support for the estimation of crop yields in regional field scales and better serve the development of precision agriculture.

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